* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 71 66 57 47 39 33 29 27 24 19 V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 71 66 57 47 39 33 29 27 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 67 61 52 43 36 31 27 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 3 2 6 4 4 3 7 10 20 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -4 1 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 203 218 105 159 210 341 19 276 249 265 239 240 245 SST (C) 26.6 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.7 24.0 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 119 114 110 110 103 96 100 105 107 106 108 112 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 50 46 44 40 37 33 31 33 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 26 18 11 -23 -22 -37 -22 -35 -42 -35 0 200 MB DIV -7 -8 -9 -9 -23 -39 -30 -18 -14 -11 14 8 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 1 1 0 3 5 2 3 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 854 881 909 929 956 1058 1219 1373 1510 1632 1788 1922 1952 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.0 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.5 22.9 22.7 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.6 120.4 121.3 122.2 124.1 126.2 127.9 129.6 131.3 132.9 134.6 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -33. -41. -47. -51. -53. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.9 118.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##