* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 52 58 58 57 56 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 52 58 58 57 56 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 38 38 36 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 3 1 5 7 7 5 13 16 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 0 3 3 6 5 7 5 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 251 136 136 152 111 290 291 323 267 273 241 273 272 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 154 152 153 152 157 152 154 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 63 64 62 59 58 57 56 60 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 13 12 14 13 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 10 20 40 46 39 27 26 4 17 0 -6 200 MB DIV 75 60 44 70 78 82 32 12 19 -4 32 62 72 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 3 7 18 16 2 0 LAND (KM) 1606 1550 1497 1440 1384 1272 1115 940 744 567 556 698 748 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 141.9 142.7 143.4 144.1 144.8 146.1 148.0 150.1 152.5 155.4 158.6 161.5 164.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 10 11 14 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 46 60 62 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 27. 33. 33. 32. 31. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 141.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.98 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.6% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 33.3% 0.0% Logistic: 23.3% 72.7% 58.4% 46.4% 8.5% 43.0% 10.0% 18.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 8.0% 34.9% 28.8% 15.5% 2.9% 22.7% 14.5% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 9.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##