* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 91 87 79 72 66 54 35 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 91 87 79 72 66 50 33 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 90 87 84 80 66 48 36 28 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 12 16 20 29 42 51 68 50 40 39 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 3 2 3 12 3 11 0 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 168 170 205 233 230 215 229 202 198 200 207 220 231 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.5 26.1 18.9 15.3 10.6 10.6 9.3 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 137 136 131 133 120 81 73 69 69 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 116 117 113 117 107 75 69 67 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -49.5 -48.1 -48.6 -48.3 -48.1 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.8 3.3 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 9 5 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 42 44 46 50 50 49 52 54 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 35 36 34 34 36 39 46 47 42 34 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 39 63 68 58 89 154 178 179 234 219 165 200 MB DIV 82 68 34 31 71 78 104 137 82 75 61 46 2 700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 0 4 3 19 3 -24 -60 -21 -53 -50 LAND (KM) 101 84 77 52 21 251 267 53 39 38 459 978 1508 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.7 33.2 34.2 35.2 37.0 39.9 44.1 47.6 51.2 54.6 57.1 58.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.7 78.2 77.0 75.8 72.8 68.3 63.3 59.7 55.2 49.3 42.1 33.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 14 15 19 25 25 22 24 24 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 18 14 6 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -15. -27. -38. -48. -56. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -28. -30. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 6. 8. 1. -11. -19. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -13. -21. -28. -34. -46. -65. -82. -96.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 32.1 79.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 786.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 10( 42) 7( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 97 95 91 87 79 72 66 50 33 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 93 89 81 74 68 52 35 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 88 80 73 67 51 34 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 78 71 65 49 32 15 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 73 66 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 97 88 82 79 73 66 60 44 27 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 97 95 86 80 76 69 63 47 30 DIS DIS DIS