* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 75 72 66 56 47 39 33 28 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 80 79 75 72 66 56 47 39 33 28 26 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 68 63 53 44 37 32 29 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 0 3 5 2 6 5 9 15 25 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 -4 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 246 223 300 226 295 337 313 273 292 241 251 236 245 SST (C) 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.8 24.6 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 111 111 109 96 99 104 104 105 105 108 112 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 46 44 41 39 34 33 34 35 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 21 22 20 18 15 13 12 9 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 16 9 -7 -23 -28 -27 -25 -43 -43 -32 -17 200 MB DIV -8 -9 -11 -33 -42 -29 -19 -18 -10 7 36 13 1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -3 4 2 4 1 4 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 894 934 946 974 1015 1147 1313 1482 1616 1736 1826 1934 1949 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.3 23.7 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.5 121.3 122.3 123.3 125.3 127.3 129.1 130.9 132.5 133.7 135.0 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -8. -14. -24. -33. -41. -47. -52. -54. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.4 119.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.5 19.6 to 1.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 683.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 5.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##