* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 40 49 53 53 52 51 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 40 49 53 53 52 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 28 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 4 9 9 8 3 8 11 18 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 6 2 3 2 7 7 3 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 188 181 213 236 303 311 332 38 253 258 272 287 282 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 151 154 155 155 154 156 153 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 66 65 63 62 59 56 58 63 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 18 37 40 43 39 23 21 4 11 0 -8 200 MB DIV 58 52 77 77 78 64 35 -2 19 19 50 82 55 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 1 6 8 15 12 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1546 1477 1411 1360 1311 1190 1054 870 666 609 705 866 1024 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.6 11.7 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.5 144.4 145.1 145.8 147.3 149.2 151.4 154.5 157.4 160.1 163.3 167.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 14 15 14 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 22 28 32 43 58 53 55 29 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 15. 24. 28. 28. 27. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 142.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.86 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.8% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 22.9% 0.0% Logistic: 13.9% 45.0% 31.6% 18.6% 2.2% 11.2% 4.0% 13.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 5.0% 24.0% 18.9% 6.2% 0.7% 11.1% 9.1% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##