* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 90 87 85 79 73 65 49 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 93 90 87 85 79 73 59 40 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 87 84 82 73 48 37 31 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 17 19 22 36 50 58 54 43 39 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 3 8 3 6 7 1 2 1 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 178 207 234 240 216 222 212 209 193 207 225 238 250 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.4 20.6 19.0 15.0 8.9 10.4 9.5 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 132 128 122 86 81 73 68 70 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 116 114 112 108 79 75 69 67 68 67 68 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -48.4 -48.0 -47.6 -47.9 -48.5 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 2.8 4.1 4.1 1.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 5 3 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 43 42 50 47 53 49 58 57 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 35 34 36 39 44 47 44 35 30 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 70 75 45 59 142 178 186 219 215 207 173 200 MB DIV 60 41 39 62 88 96 101 114 78 98 79 53 -8 700-850 TADV 6 -1 0 5 11 8 6 41 -71 -93 -30 -120 -42 LAND (KM) 65 60 39 31 133 316 192 15 -16 252 760 1328 1280 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.4 34.1 35.1 36.0 38.4 41.8 46.0 49.7 52.9 55.8 58.3 60.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 78.1 77.3 75.8 74.4 70.5 65.9 61.7 57.6 52.1 45.0 36.7 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 15 17 22 25 25 23 25 26 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 15 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -15. -26. -36. -46. -53. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -24. -30. -30. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 11. 8. -4. -12. -24. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -22. -30. -46. -67. -79. -96.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.7 78.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 709.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 12( 27) 10( 34) 7( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 90 87 85 79 73 59 40 24 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 91 88 86 80 74 60 41 25 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 86 80 74 60 41 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 77 71 57 38 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 70 64 50 31 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 71 65 51 32 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 93 90 81 75 71 65 51 32 16 DIS DIS DIS