* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 71 66 56 48 41 34 30 25 20 15 V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 71 66 56 48 41 34 30 25 20 15 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 68 63 52 44 38 34 31 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 3 4 6 3 7 9 11 17 24 37 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 207 238 278 303 326 314 259 263 255 260 243 245 248 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.4 24.0 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 111 107 102 96 102 103 106 107 109 112 114 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 43 41 39 35 33 31 32 32 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 20 20 17 15 13 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 8 -9 -22 -19 -35 -17 -32 -39 -39 -13 -9 200 MB DIV -5 -13 -34 -43 -31 -20 -14 -8 -4 15 17 9 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -5 -3 5 5 2 4 4 5 4 2 LAND (KM) 933 948 971 1020 1078 1242 1412 1543 1682 1815 1932 1936 1815 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.6 23.8 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.5 122.4 123.4 124.4 126.5 128.4 130.3 132.2 133.9 135.3 136.5 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -19. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -14. -24. -32. -39. -46. -50. -55. -60. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.0 120.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 733.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##