* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 38 45 47 49 48 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 32 38 45 47 49 48 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 12 15 12 10 4 13 13 19 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 6 6 5 2 4 7 2 -4 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 217 230 257 290 303 331 5 336 310 302 306 307 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 154 155 154 154 154 157 159 155 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 61 65 65 64 65 63 63 62 65 68 68 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 23 41 53 54 47 36 21 0 -2 -16 -21 -19 200 MB DIV 48 62 79 78 105 71 13 10 -3 24 38 64 43 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -3 -3 -1 5 5 5 5 4 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1385 1315 1272 1250 1225 1175 1099 990 875 788 828 950 1027 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 11.8 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.7 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.2 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.2 146.0 146.7 147.4 148.7 150.2 152.0 154.5 157.3 160.5 163.6 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 10 14 15 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 21 28 35 41 41 44 51 61 41 40 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 22. 24. 23. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 144.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.57 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.1% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 17.2% 11.1% 5.2% 0.7% 3.0% 1.5% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 12.5% 10.3% 1.7% 0.2% 7.6% 7.4% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##