* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 52 32 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 47 32 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 86 83 82 82 78 65 47 35 27 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 22 26 41 52 66 48 38 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 7 11 6 12 4 1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 224 232 219 216 221 204 198 196 206 216 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.2 18.9 15.9 9.5 10.6 9.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 137 135 120 81 74 68 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 116 119 119 107 75 70 67 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -47.9 -47.6 -47.4 -47.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 3.3 3.3 2.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 5 3 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 43 45 48 51 52 51 55 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 34 35 36 38 41 47 46 40 33 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 71 74 50 43 108 187 219 214 251 224 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 38 75 94 87 105 162 90 87 59 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 1 6 3 14 13 -28 -70 -20 -45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 61 43 168 284 283 60 23 41 484 1014 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.2 35.0 36.1 37.1 40.0 44.0 48.2 51.6 54.6 57.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.9 76.8 75.7 74.0 72.3 67.9 63.4 59.3 54.9 48.9 41.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 17 20 24 26 24 23 24 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 11 13 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -23. -33. -42. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -28. -32. -32. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 8. 0. -9. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -17. -24. -38. -58. -73. -86. -91. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.4 77.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 7( 26) 4( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 84 82 80 73 66 47 32 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 85 83 76 69 50 35 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 75 68 49 34 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 71 64 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 57 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 64 57 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 86 84 75 69 65 58 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS