* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 74 69 63 53 46 39 32 28 24 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 74 69 63 53 46 39 32 28 24 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 78 73 67 61 49 42 36 32 29 26 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 5 3 4 6 11 15 16 26 38 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 282 322 330 13 307 246 264 270 266 249 256 247 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 24.6 24.0 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 109 102 96 99 104 104 106 109 111 114 115 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 43 43 42 41 38 34 33 32 32 35 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 20 20 19 16 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 -8 -21 -26 -32 -34 -37 -48 -39 -36 -31 -28 200 MB DIV -3 -27 -44 -28 -18 5 -12 -6 -1 14 24 17 28 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -1 3 2 6 2 7 7 6 7 7 LAND (KM) 946 978 1023 1090 1162 1326 1490 1617 1758 1888 1979 1845 1726 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.4 123.4 124.4 125.4 127.4 129.4 131.2 133.2 134.8 136.1 137.4 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -18. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -11. -17. -27. -34. -41. -48. -52. -56. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.5 121.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 744.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##