* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 50 55 56 55 51 48 47 45 45 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 50 55 56 55 51 48 47 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 48 48 49 48 44 40 37 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 21 22 17 8 4 16 16 23 20 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 3 3 1 13 6 2 -2 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 244 271 284 292 306 301 258 265 264 265 264 257 267 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 153 154 153 156 155 157 153 153 153 156 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 62 62 58 54 54 55 56 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 13 14 14 11 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 46 53 59 48 20 18 7 4 -8 -14 -7 200 MB DIV 76 76 82 90 93 58 -2 6 30 36 55 21 25 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 2 9 11 14 14 7 1 0 LAND (KM) 1336 1280 1226 1159 1094 954 786 633 637 810 901 1116 1347 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 15.0 16.3 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.0 146.7 147.5 148.3 150.3 152.7 155.6 158.7 162.2 165.9 169.1 171.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 11 14 15 17 18 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 24 27 28 34 46 59 58 28 45 52 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 15. 16. 15. 11. 8. 7. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.7 145.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.21 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 26.0% 22.9% 17.5% 11.2% 23.1% 23.7% 17.4% Logistic: 11.3% 16.8% 10.3% 5.8% 1.3% 6.0% 4.3% 10.4% Bayesian: 10.6% 6.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 12.0% 16.5% 11.8% 8.0% 4.2% 9.8% 9.7% 9.3% DTOPS: 7.0% 20.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##