* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 75 75 73 69 61 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 75 75 73 69 54 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 76 74 75 74 68 46 33 29 24 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 21 27 35 45 63 46 42 46 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 7 12 7 12 2 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 237 222 215 226 212 210 196 220 222 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 28.1 27.2 26.1 22.1 18.0 14.4 9.7 9.6 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 141 130 119 93 78 72 69 68 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 123 114 106 85 73 69 68 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -48.2 -48.4 -48.4 -48.5 -48.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 43 43 47 49 48 54 52 56 59 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 37 39 41 46 49 43 31 27 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 64 49 46 63 163 186 196 241 227 203 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 71 93 96 116 140 132 81 109 64 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 4 11 13 13 8 32 -80 -59 -65 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 61 182 302 321 129 1 -2 327 877 1390 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.2 36.2 37.4 38.6 42.4 46.7 50.4 54.6 57.1 58.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.9 75.3 73.8 71.8 69.9 65.0 60.8 57.4 51.5 43.9 35.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 18 20 23 27 24 24 26 24 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 8 23 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -20. -28. -35. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -27. -31. -34. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 7. -8. -13. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -7. -11. -19. -38. -62. -74. -86. -90. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.1 76.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.1% 8.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 3( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 75 75 73 69 54 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 76 72 57 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 74 70 55 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 64 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT