* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 56 51 43 40 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 56 51 43 40 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 65 60 55 50 42 37 33 30 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 3 2 7 9 10 18 25 34 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 296 329 29 232 266 247 266 254 262 262 264 254 SST (C) 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.4 23.4 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 104 96 96 102 104 106 108 111 113 116 122 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 42 40 35 35 32 32 32 33 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 20 18 14 14 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -16 -25 -25 -24 -36 -27 -50 -47 -40 -38 -45 -32 200 MB DIV -29 -41 -39 -23 -3 -4 -6 6 0 9 14 22 33 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -2 2 4 1 4 3 3 7 3 8 9 LAND (KM) 963 1018 1081 1157 1238 1416 1567 1697 1844 1969 1879 1731 1562 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.3 124.3 125.4 126.4 128.4 130.4 132.3 134.3 135.9 137.1 138.6 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -27. -30. -37. -41. -47. -52. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.1 122.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 661.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 06 UTC ##