* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 50 49 49 46 42 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 50 49 49 46 42 40 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 42 42 41 40 37 34 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 23 17 12 9 10 17 21 25 22 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 4 5 0 5 11 4 -1 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 269 282 295 318 316 301 252 271 259 276 261 263 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 154 154 154 158 152 152 154 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 65 63 62 58 56 56 56 57 57 58 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 47 54 58 65 40 20 12 16 -6 -12 -8 -1 200 MB DIV 73 69 76 87 88 20 1 13 40 25 35 29 25 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -4 -1 2 8 15 11 6 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1264 1204 1146 1070 996 838 686 634 738 860 1055 1264 1444 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.1 147.8 148.8 149.8 152.0 154.6 157.8 161.1 164.6 168.0 170.8 173.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 10 10 12 15 17 17 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 29 30 32 45 60 54 42 34 69 50 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 9. 6. 2. 0. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.6 146.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 22.8% 20.1% 15.1% 9.6% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 9.4% 5.1% 3.0% 0.6% 3.6% 1.1% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 11.0% 8.5% 6.1% 3.4% 7.8% 0.5% 1.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##