* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 74 72 64 51 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 74 72 56 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 77 73 59 41 29 23 20 21 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 26 38 43 53 55 46 47 53 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 10 5 6 11 0 0 5 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 214 212 227 223 212 202 211 217 223 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 26.7 25.8 21.8 18.5 14.4 9.2 11.1 9.7 10.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 125 116 91 80 72 68 70 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 118 111 104 83 74 68 67 68 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -47.7 -48.5 -49.5 -48.6 -47.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 1.5 1.9 2.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 41 45 51 50 49 50 53 52 54 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 38 39 44 48 47 35 28 22 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 43 46 62 109 186 216 208 210 208 185 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 108 104 112 131 154 70 92 66 58 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 11 10 9 28 49 -55 -66 -54 -52 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 35 181 298 289 259 -6 91 13 552 1107 1485 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.3 37.4 39.1 40.7 44.7 48.8 52.0 54.3 56.8 59.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.7 73.8 71.9 69.8 67.6 63.2 59.9 55.6 47.7 39.7 32.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 21 23 24 25 22 24 26 25 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -24. -32. -39. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -25. -29. -34. -37. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 10. -3. -13. -21. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -16. -29. -51. -71. -87. -95.-101.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.1 75.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 77 74 72 56 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 75 73 57 46 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 71 55 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 52 41 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT