* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 56 51 44 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 56 51 44 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 66 60 54 49 42 37 33 30 27 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 6 7 7 14 15 23 34 43 48 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -2 4 -5 -2 0 -4 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 291 317 72 165 224 229 255 262 265 260 269 258 261 SST (C) 24.5 24.0 23.2 23.3 23.7 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 94 95 99 108 108 107 111 113 117 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 40 38 34 32 31 31 30 30 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 16 14 13 10 9 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -24 -23 -24 -40 -34 -48 -52 -50 -40 -41 -42 -33 200 MB DIV -31 -27 -24 -15 0 -6 9 1 6 8 9 32 18 700-850 TADV -7 -4 3 4 0 5 0 3 7 2 4 2 6 LAND (KM) 990 1058 1133 1219 1308 1481 1625 1800 1962 1851 1723 1559 1345 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.1 125.2 126.3 127.3 129.4 131.6 133.8 135.9 137.4 138.7 140.4 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -17. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -26. -31. -38. -45. -51. -59. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.6 123.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 665.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##