* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 27 28 28 32 36 39 38 37 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 27 28 28 32 36 39 38 37 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 23 22 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 14 8 6 5 12 15 21 19 24 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 4 1 12 5 -1 0 4 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 294 300 312 327 317 294 266 270 268 265 259 268 279 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 150 153 156 153 154 155 154 151 157 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 61 60 55 58 62 59 59 59 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 45 40 41 17 13 9 18 6 6 19 38 200 MB DIV 54 70 75 62 66 12 18 39 45 44 21 46 24 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -4 -1 -1 2 1 0 6 3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1111 1039 977 937 903 778 757 863 1016 1194 1360 1587 1894 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.4 14.9 16.1 16.9 17.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.0 150.1 151.2 152.0 152.9 155.5 158.3 161.4 165.9 169.3 171.6 174.2 177.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 11 14 15 19 20 15 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 39 40 42 63 51 36 64 63 60 49 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 2. 6. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 149.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.34 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 18.3% 12.8% 8.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 6.3% 4.4% 2.7% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##