* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 75 70 59 41 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 75 70 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 74 66 48 35 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 29 37 46 47 55 43 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 4 3 11 2 3 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 218 229 224 211 202 212 216 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.4 25.9 19.6 18.7 17.1 13.7 9.2 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 121 117 83 80 76 71 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 108 105 78 75 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -48.2 -48.3 -49.0 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.2 2.1 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 47 52 53 49 51 51 50 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 38 41 45 47 50 41 29 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 66 116 147 192 198 223 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 112 106 127 151 112 90 76 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 23 36 2 -32 -40 -61 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 304 296 268 78 64 10 300 836 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.7 39.0 41.0 42.9 47.1 50.5 53.4 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.7 71.7 69.7 67.3 65.0 61.4 57.5 51.4 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 24 26 25 23 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -26. -35. -40. -44. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -26. -31. -36. -38. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 4. -10. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -10. -21. -39. -65. -82. -89. -97.-103.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.3 73.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/06/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 77 75 70 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 70 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 69 51 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT