* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 68 63 46 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 68 54 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 66 52 42 33 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 39 46 50 55 49 48 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 4 3 10 7 2 4 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 226 228 212 206 204 215 219 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.0 21.6 18.7 18.5 14.3 8.7 11.1 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 118 90 80 79 72 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 105 82 75 74 68 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -49.5 -49.2 -47.5 -48.3 -49.1 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.0 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 52 53 48 49 50 55 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 43 47 49 46 34 25 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 71 129 148 180 211 211 203 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 117 130 157 168 67 95 69 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 17 42 -6 3 -47 -54 -60 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 302 293 78 -28 74 59 540 1001 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 39.2 40.8 42.9 45.0 48.9 51.9 54.3 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 69.2 67.1 65.0 62.9 59.6 54.8 47.9 41.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 23 24 26 24 22 23 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -20. -29. -37. -43. -47. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -30. -35. -41. -44. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 4. -8. -20. -27. -28. -30. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -34. -59. -83.-102.-110.-118.-125.-131. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 37.5 71.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 73 68 54 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 70 56 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 71 57 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 56 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT