* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 42 39 35 32 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 42 39 35 32 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 49 45 41 38 34 31 29 26 24 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 4 7 9 8 15 18 25 36 41 44 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 0 1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -4 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 188 216 229 219 242 248 250 249 254 253 257 259 SST (C) 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 94 98 102 107 107 107 109 112 116 121 122 125 126 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 35 33 32 30 31 30 32 34 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 15 14 13 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -25 -37 -40 -40 -52 -51 -46 -44 -39 -42 -19 -10 200 MB DIV -14 -3 -1 4 0 6 17 13 6 20 34 46 0 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 2 4 -1 2 2 0 2 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 1150 1247 1347 1431 1483 1633 1812 1962 1777 1616 1468 1309 1133 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.7 127.8 128.9 129.9 132.1 134.4 136.3 138.2 139.8 141.3 143.0 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -33. -40. -45. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.6 125.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 537.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##