* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 43 47 50 51 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 43 47 50 51 52 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 40 42 43 44 44 45 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 8 4 6 10 16 16 15 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 1 4 7 6 3 0 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 283 296 316 333 299 302 296 305 291 320 300 281 SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 156 154 153 157 156 156 156 154 150 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 8 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 60 60 62 64 68 68 72 73 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 13 12 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 39 32 26 13 9 4 -7 -9 -6 8 16 200 MB DIV 73 64 52 38 27 41 36 40 52 55 58 41 33 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 3 -4 -7 0 1 LAND (KM) 930 904 905 934 955 1045 1159 1321 1411 1547 1720 1872 1972 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.5 11.2 12.3 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 152.2 153.6 154.7 155.9 156.9 159.3 162.0 165.1 168.4 171.2 173.8 175.8 177.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 13 14 16 16 14 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 48 47 46 44 37 55 58 64 56 72 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 152.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.60 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 25.7% 24.3% 18.6% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 19.5% 12.6% 6.3% 0.7% 6.8% 3.2% 19.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% Consensus: 6.5% 15.2% 12.3% 8.3% 4.3% 2.3% 2.1% 7.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##