* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 56 59 62 63 56 42 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 56 59 62 63 56 42 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 52 54 57 58 57 55 48 39 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 14 13 20 14 18 27 44 66 81 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -3 0 -3 -3 3 2 2 4 3 15 SHEAR DIR 213 52 78 93 110 138 178 178 192 209 219 228 233 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.7 29.0 27.7 27.3 25.4 23.5 19.4 15.3 14.0 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 137 148 152 133 129 111 98 83 76 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 119 127 130 111 108 95 87 77 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -50.8 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 39 41 45 46 44 35 34 44 55 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 22 20 17 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -9 -34 -27 -33 -53 -60 -20 -37 -9 -10 36 89 200 MB DIV -34 -27 -11 -2 -10 14 34 46 45 74 69 43 28 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 0 -4 -10 -1 -26 -14 -28 -63 -103 -89 LAND (KM) 2067 1939 1814 1705 1599 1361 1153 988 1012 1227 1423 751 337 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.2 31.9 32.6 33.2 35.1 37.2 39.8 42.1 45.4 49.6 54.2 58.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.8 44.2 45.4 46.6 47.9 47.5 45.4 42.1 37.1 30.2 21.5 11.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 13 16 21 28 33 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 15 17 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 17 CX,CY: -9/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -14. -28. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. -2. -8. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 11. -3. -25. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.5 41.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 18.7% 13.0% 10.0% 7.5% 10.6% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 10.1% 6.8% 1.1% 0.4% 2.2% 3.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.8% 6.7% 3.7% 2.6% 4.3% 6.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 52 56 59 62 63 56 42 20 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 53 56 59 60 53 39 17 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 48 51 54 55 48 34 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 43 46 47 40 26 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT