* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 28 26 25 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 28 26 25 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 34 29 27 25 22 21 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 7 11 15 22 32 42 49 50 50 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 -1 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 202 235 241 230 228 256 251 246 249 253 254 252 255 SST (C) 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 97 102 107 108 107 108 111 115 120 122 124 124 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 40 37 34 35 35 30 32 29 31 31 33 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 14 13 13 10 9 7 7 6 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -41 -43 -41 -39 -52 -51 -47 -38 -37 -28 -16 -7 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -13 -6 5 21 7 11 12 20 30 28 -2 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 2 2 2 2 4 -1 2 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1243 1340 1428 1496 1569 1718 1894 1860 1651 1477 1342 1199 1050 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.7 128.8 129.9 131.0 133.2 135.4 137.4 139.5 141.3 142.7 144.2 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -16. -25. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -19. -25. -32. -37. -41. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.8 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##