* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 31 31 32 31 31 32 35 36 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 31 31 32 31 31 32 35 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 22 21 21 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 8 12 16 19 24 23 24 13 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 7 4 5 2 -1 0 -2 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 260 261 272 267 244 262 269 281 274 277 262 254 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 153 153 155 152 153 153 154 151 152 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 55 56 57 61 58 61 64 63 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 44 19 11 14 12 -15 -27 -23 -5 7 25 200 MB DIV 78 57 38 29 30 36 45 35 37 22 32 10 37 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 2 -1 4 4 0 -4 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 844 776 737 714 703 740 870 946 1071 1250 1407 1541 1628 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.1 14.0 15.4 16.8 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.7 152.7 153.8 155.0 156.2 159.0 162.1 165.5 168.4 170.9 172.7 174.1 174.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 15 17 18 14 11 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 51 66 60 45 33 55 80 45 49 33 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 151.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.49 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.47 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 25.9% 23.0% 17.0% 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.9% 5.4% 3.0% 0.5% 2.1% 3.4% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 4.9% 13.8% 9.7% 6.7% 0.2% 7.1% 1.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##