* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 60 52 44 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 68 52 48 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 69 55 52 45 35 27 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 52 58 62 56 49 51 58 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 6 3 1 2 2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 212 207 202 199 207 213 229 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 18.3 18.5 17.1 14.2 9.4 11.1 9.6 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 79 79 75 71 68 70 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 75 73 70 68 67 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.6 -48.8 -47.9 -47.4 -47.9 -48.8 -48.5 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 51 53 50 54 53 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 46 48 47 45 33 27 22 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 136 171 184 196 198 197 179 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 142 160 155 108 70 77 55 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 39 -2 -2 -9 -55 -66 -64 -61 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 305 70 -49 59 98 24 509 1045 1420 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 43.1 45.2 47.0 48.8 51.5 54.0 56.5 59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.9 64.9 62.9 61.5 60.0 55.2 48.3 40.6 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 23 21 21 22 25 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -30. -37. -43. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -31. -39. -46. -50. -55. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. -8. -17. -26. -34. -36. -38. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -31. -53. -74. -94.-112.-121.-131.-139.-148. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 40.9 66.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/07/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 68 52 48 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 58 54 46 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 59 48 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 57 46 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT