* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 33 34 35 35 34 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 33 34 35 35 34 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 24 24 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 12 15 15 21 26 25 19 17 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 5 5 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 245 263 249 226 244 250 271 280 272 266 253 254 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 155 157 157 154 153 155 157 153 155 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 56 56 58 60 60 65 67 69 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 20 17 10 13 -5 -26 -13 -12 6 13 31 200 MB DIV 53 26 24 23 37 42 49 37 39 36 45 31 40 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 -9 1 -3 -4 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 760 714 689 690 722 848 981 1111 1303 1490 1678 1824 1952 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.5 14.4 15.7 16.9 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 153.1 154.3 155.5 156.8 158.2 161.3 164.6 168.0 171.0 173.3 175.3 176.8 178.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 17 13 11 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 57 66 58 53 36 59 68 61 58 33 37 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 153.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.42 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 23.4% 21.3% 15.9% 0.0% 19.1% 18.7% 11.4% Logistic: 4.8% 14.5% 5.8% 3.4% 0.7% 2.0% 3.9% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 5.7% 16.6% 9.6% 6.6% 0.4% 7.1% 7.7% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##