* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 27 25 23 22 20 18 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 14 16 24 31 42 48 47 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 242 246 254 247 251 246 253 252 255 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.0 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 104 105 107 112 114 117 121 122 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 34 33 31 29 29 27 28 30 31 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 10 9 7 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -43 -42 -57 -50 -47 -45 -40 -34 -16 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 0 4 10 19 7 11 7 19 23 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 4 8 3 5 1 4 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1406 1474 1548 1626 1707 1872 1842 1652 1484 1351 1254 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 130.0 131.2 132.4 133.5 135.7 137.7 139.6 141.3 142.8 144.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -14. -25. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -14. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 128.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##