* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 23 23 24 29 32 35 39 41 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 23 23 24 29 32 35 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 14 19 20 22 18 17 11 13 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 9 5 2 0 2 3 0 0 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 234 219 250 260 265 272 274 292 310 335 298 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 160 156 155 155 159 160 159 155 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 59 61 64 66 70 72 73 74 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 25 14 17 15 6 -5 -12 -2 5 8 10 13 200 MB DIV 47 38 28 20 10 28 48 49 65 81 23 8 6 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -5 -4 -7 -7 -6 -8 -10 -4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 825 894 973 1071 1163 1365 1548 1785 2061 2293 4058 3980 3913 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 156.2 158.0 159.5 161.0 162.5 165.8 169.5 173.2 176.8 179.7 181.8 183.0 183.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 15 16 17 19 18 16 13 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 57 41 30 40 54 60 54 47 44 42 34 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -1. 2. 5. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 156.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 20.6% 13.9% 13.7% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 13.6% 6.8% 3.8% 0.3% 2.3% 1.2% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 12.6% 7.0% 5.8% 0.1% 5.6% 0.5% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##