* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 61 50 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 67 48 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 74 64 47 43 33 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 59 65 56 53 47 48 54 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 0 1 0 4 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 198 200 203 210 216 231 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.5 17.0 14.5 13.5 7.8 10.9 9.7 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 75 72 71 68 69 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 71 69 68 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -47.8 -47.1 -47.5 -47.8 -48.3 -48.4 -46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 3.2 2.9 4.1 3.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 52 54 55 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 48 48 47 42 35 28 23 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 171 184 187 190 202 208 201 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 162 126 64 96 97 67 50 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 -40 -54 -47 -54 -51 -85 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -49 43 56 -27 92 567 1096 1400 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.2 47.0 48.8 50.3 51.8 54.4 56.6 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 61.1 59.4 56.8 54.2 47.5 39.8 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 22 22 23 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 26 CX,CY: 15/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -34. -43. -49. -54. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -27. -34. -39. -46. -49. -53. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -26. -37. -40. -42. -44. -45. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -30. -44. -68. -93.-117.-132.-143.-153.-160.-168. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 45.2 62.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/08/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 67 48 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 69 50 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 57 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 61 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT