* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 20 20 22 27 32 36 38 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 20 20 22 27 32 36 38 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 17 17 17 17 18 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 13 19 18 23 21 19 15 13 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 4 2 1 0 3 0 -1 -4 -7 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 239 222 251 262 267 271 275 277 302 305 315 250 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 157 155 155 157 159 160 156 156 155 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 61 62 66 66 72 74 76 75 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 5 8 11 8 -2 -16 -9 -1 10 7 22 22 200 MB DIV 33 23 22 9 11 40 54 58 95 46 23 31 18 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -7 -3 -6 -8 -5 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 838 922 1008 1113 1205 1380 1589 1845 2081 4242 4134 4080 4025 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.1 158.8 160.4 162.0 163.6 167.1 170.9 174.5 177.6 180.0 181.5 182.1 182.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 18 18 17 14 10 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 60 52 32 36 49 58 62 62 51 54 46 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. 2. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 157.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.39 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 8.6% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 5.1% 5.3% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##