* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 59 63 67 64 64 63 63 62 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 53 59 63 67 64 64 63 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 51 53 53 53 52 51 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 0 2 2 3 4 6 7 5 6 4 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 5 5 1 2 1 4 1 -2 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 248 293 269 329 32 90 55 88 41 61 39 331 319 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.2 28.1 27.6 28.0 27.3 27.4 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 146 145 140 144 137 137 127 129 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 68 65 67 66 61 55 53 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 17 17 17 18 15 16 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -5 9 10 21 24 28 38 42 34 16 18 10 200 MB DIV 54 58 67 61 71 33 27 45 15 8 35 22 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 0 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 798 809 834 881 937 1044 1124 1213 1332 1412 1436 1450 1474 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.8 113.8 114.8 115.7 117.5 119.2 121.0 122.9 124.3 125.1 125.7 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 11 10 8 15 7 8 4 13 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 3. 5. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 28. 32. 29. 29. 28. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.98 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 37.0% 32.5% 23.2% 14.8% 29.5% 34.0% 19.2% Logistic: 22.1% 51.2% 39.3% 25.4% 4.7% 24.5% 6.6% 4.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 30.4% 24.4% 16.3% 6.6% 18.1% 13.6% 8.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 33.0% 19.0% 12.0% 6.0% 17.0% 7.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##