* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 57 59 59 56 55 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 57 59 59 56 55 54 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 45 45 44 43 41 40 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 1 8 8 8 5 4 2 7 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 5 0 1 -2 2 1 3 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 184 200 220 89 94 83 58 19 64 335 283 302 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.2 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.5 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 148 143 142 134 136 128 127 125 127 119 115 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 67 70 65 61 56 53 51 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 17 19 17 17 16 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 14 18 33 38 25 38 43 35 18 31 37 37 200 MB DIV 60 67 63 62 40 10 4 5 20 17 9 -7 16 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 -2 -3 -1 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 758 779 811 850 899 976 1053 1157 1281 1352 1413 1481 1569 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.1 116.0 117.7 119.5 121.3 123.0 124.5 125.8 126.9 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 12 8 8 6 7 1 1 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 24. 24. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.84 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 29.9% 27.2% 20.7% 13.3% 22.2% 21.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 26.3% 15.4% 7.2% 1.8% 5.2% 2.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 18.9% 14.2% 9.3% 5.1% 9.1% 7.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 32.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##