* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 50 51 51 50 48 49 46 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 46 50 51 51 50 48 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 36 38 38 36 34 33 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 12 7 2 8 11 5 11 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 4 1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 248 7 67 64 67 128 5 43 334 309 295 249 286 SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.2 26.3 25.8 26.4 26.2 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 139 139 134 132 125 126 120 126 123 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 68 69 65 59 56 55 55 56 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 19 19 21 20 22 21 20 20 19 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 19 26 31 38 32 41 49 46 34 20 16 26 10 200 MB DIV 53 45 25 33 37 23 17 -2 -8 8 -4 30 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -4 1 -1 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 796 829 869 917 959 1032 1116 1216 1277 1328 1364 1428 1532 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 20.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.9 115.7 116.6 117.4 119.1 120.8 122.3 123.8 125.0 125.9 126.9 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 7 7 5 6 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 14. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.70 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 20.5% 20.4% 15.1% 9.6% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.3% 7.5% 5.2% 3.3% 5.9% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##