* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 53 55 54 54 51 47 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 53 55 54 54 51 47 46 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 49 49 46 41 37 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 6 5 10 13 8 10 14 12 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -3 -5 -2 2 5 7 4 6 4 2 SHEAR DIR 71 92 115 113 87 356 26 2 298 306 273 285 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.4 25.9 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 137 134 135 130 129 124 123 126 120 114 115 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 65 62 59 56 55 53 49 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 21 21 21 21 22 21 19 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 37 44 49 52 44 43 46 27 16 11 29 23 32 200 MB DIV 40 54 64 62 38 -13 -11 -20 0 5 37 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 3 0 1 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 886 932 982 1008 1039 1105 1207 1278 1328 1398 1449 1524 1636 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.0 118.7 120.2 121.9 123.2 124.5 125.7 126.6 127.8 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 8 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 14. 14. 11. 7. 6. 2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 115.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 23.8% 23.6% 18.0% 11.4% 19.7% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 21.5% 15.1% 4.3% 6.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 15.2% 12.9% 7.4% 6.1% 7.2% 6.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 34.0% 18.0% 10.0% 4.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##