* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 59 61 64 62 56 52 48 43 39 35 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 59 61 64 62 56 52 48 43 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 56 58 58 55 49 43 38 34 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 4 7 13 8 7 12 11 17 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 7 6 3 4 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 83 113 116 83 42 21 49 343 327 290 266 265 251 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.4 26.3 25.9 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 133 134 126 125 121 125 124 118 113 115 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 65 64 60 59 56 59 55 53 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 19 22 20 18 17 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 47 39 36 29 24 8 18 16 20 8 15 200 MB DIV 56 75 62 26 4 -17 -11 -20 7 6 4 0 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -1 4 2 6 5 LAND (KM) 936 973 1001 1034 1070 1137 1205 1288 1343 1399 1461 1541 1638 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.8 122.1 123.6 124.8 125.9 126.9 128.0 129.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 7 8 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 14. 16. 19. 17. 11. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.3 116.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 28.6% 27.0% 20.8% 13.3% 21.1% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 19.8% 16.9% 4.1% 5.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 16.3% 14.7% 8.3% 6.4% 7.4% 6.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 16.0% 48.0% 31.0% 20.0% 10.0% 21.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##