* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 67 68 67 60 54 48 43 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 67 68 67 60 54 48 43 37 32 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 66 67 65 57 49 43 37 31 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 8 12 15 7 9 14 18 25 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 0 2 5 7 7 9 4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 109 110 54 28 6 37 7 334 306 276 276 269 248 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 129 125 126 123 124 128 122 115 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 62 62 60 61 58 58 52 47 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 21 22 19 18 17 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 35 36 25 30 18 2 -1 15 11 28 50 200 MB DIV 77 79 48 17 -1 -9 -21 -13 -5 1 12 3 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 0 5 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1007 1045 1087 1117 1152 1229 1293 1344 1397 1464 1545 1647 1785 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.7 122.0 123.3 124.5 125.6 126.7 127.9 129.2 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 4 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 13. 12. 5. -1. -7. -12. -18. -23. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.4 117.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.71 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 36.5% 30.7% 22.8% 14.5% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 18.8% 19.7% 4.5% 8.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.8% 18.6% 16.8% 9.1% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 30.0% 45.0% 27.0% 21.0% 17.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##