* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 82 82 80 72 64 60 55 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 75 81 82 82 80 72 64 60 55 50 45 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 85 85 82 72 62 55 49 42 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 12 14 15 12 9 8 7 14 19 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 4 5 0 1 6 8 9 9 9 4 SHEAR DIR 73 44 29 31 28 47 10 327 311 274 270 264 239 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.2 26.5 26.3 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 130 131 133 124 127 125 118 118 120 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 60 60 62 58 60 56 51 45 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 23 21 20 21 20 19 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 29 19 13 21 11 19 11 36 36 45 48 200 MB DIV 63 46 13 -10 -8 -2 -18 4 -7 -1 20 22 15 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -8 -7 -6 0 -1 -1 1 1 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 1103 1145 1191 1224 1261 1334 1380 1420 1497 1574 1659 1780 1934 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.8 123.0 124.2 125.2 126.4 127.7 129.0 130.5 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 6 3 4 5 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 7. 5. -3. -11. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 119.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.55 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.7% 26.2% 19.7% 19.1% 12.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 10.4% 8.3% 6.7% 4.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 43.0% 27.0% 15.0% 13.0% 12.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##