* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 101 98 93 79 70 60 55 50 45 38 29 V (KT) LAND 95 102 101 98 93 79 70 60 55 50 45 38 29 V (KT) LGEM 95 103 103 98 91 77 66 58 52 47 41 34 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 14 15 11 9 6 4 13 17 26 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 6 3 0 -1 3 7 5 6 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 43 44 37 59 54 41 8 253 277 252 249 222 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 134 136 133 127 128 126 120 117 118 121 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 58 60 62 60 60 56 53 52 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 22 22 19 19 17 18 17 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 16 14 0 -5 -4 9 20 20 26 39 200 MB DIV 27 21 -7 -11 -5 -25 -14 -6 -1 -6 11 27 16 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 -4 -2 1 0 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 1158 1207 1259 1294 1331 1386 1440 1483 1557 1614 1645 1710 1803 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.4 123.3 124.2 125.3 126.5 127.5 128.3 129.3 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 6 6 7 5 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 12. 8. 4. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 3. -2. -16. -25. -35. -40. -45. -50. -57. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.0 119.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 5.9% 6.7% 2.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 7.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##