* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 112 104 98 85 75 68 63 59 55 48 42 V (KT) LAND 115 116 112 104 98 85 75 68 63 59 55 48 42 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 109 101 93 79 69 63 59 55 51 46 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 15 14 10 8 2 4 9 13 22 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 3 7 6 SHEAR DIR 27 29 54 54 53 57 36 49 250 177 227 220 243 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 133 127 126 127 126 123 121 125 130 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 62 64 60 60 57 58 60 58 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 9 7 0 -15 -17 -1 12 25 28 46 46 200 MB DIV 14 12 -1 -11 -19 -3 -26 -8 -11 6 16 25 39 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1245 1278 1313 1350 1389 1461 1513 1575 1611 1672 1746 1840 1954 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.1 124.1 124.9 125.9 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.9 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 6 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -25. -34. -42. -48. -54. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -6. -1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -10. -17. -30. -40. -47. -52. -56. -60. -67. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.9 120.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 576.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##