* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 104 96 89 78 69 64 59 56 49 45 36 V (KT) LAND 115 111 104 96 89 78 69 64 59 56 49 45 36 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 104 96 88 76 67 61 57 53 49 42 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 14 13 11 8 2 1 8 13 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 9 7 10 SHEAR DIR 28 43 50 47 51 49 34 335 172 207 236 240 249 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.4 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 132 129 127 128 129 127 124 126 131 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 64 60 60 58 59 61 60 55 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 19 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 31 12 11 2 -5 -7 -6 9 14 22 33 53 38 200 MB DIV 17 7 -6 -17 -9 -2 -28 0 -2 11 35 13 3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 1 3 5 2 LAND (KM) 1282 1326 1371 1406 1442 1508 1570 1628 1695 1775 1845 1928 2035 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.2 122.8 123.3 123.8 124.7 125.6 126.4 127.4 128.6 129.8 131.0 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 1 0 2 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -34. -42. -48. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -19. -26. -37. -46. -51. -56. -59. -66. -70. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.1 121.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 609.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##