* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 97 91 86 75 70 69 68 66 60 56 51 V (KT) LAND 110 104 97 91 86 75 70 69 68 66 60 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 96 88 81 70 63 60 58 56 53 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 15 13 13 7 1 7 6 11 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 -1 2 1 0 -2 0 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 39 47 43 42 53 38 50 2 153 218 214 250 242 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 129 128 129 132 132 131 132 135 135 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 61 60 62 60 62 61 62 58 54 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 22 20 21 21 21 23 20 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 1 -5 -14 -9 1 15 22 29 18 17 -5 200 MB DIV 8 1 -11 -10 5 -14 -17 -15 24 15 23 -3 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1338 1379 1423 1457 1491 1552 1639 1697 1772 1859 1934 2017 2101 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 122.9 123.5 123.9 124.3 125.1 126.1 126.9 127.9 129.1 130.2 131.2 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 3 6 12 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -30. -37. -42. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. -3. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -24. -35. -40. -41. -42. -44. -50. -54. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##