* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 86 81 76 67 65 64 63 59 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 100 92 86 81 76 67 65 64 63 59 55 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 78 72 62 57 54 52 50 47 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 16 14 13 2 2 6 9 14 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 -1 0 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 46 36 35 51 45 42 123 1 202 242 244 218 223 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.8 27.4 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 130 129 130 132 137 135 129 129 136 137 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 63 60 61 61 61 63 60 64 63 61 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 1 -10 -5 -6 27 16 31 21 17 1 -6 200 MB DIV -2 0 -3 4 -3 -21 1 0 21 21 31 20 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 -6 0 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1387 1425 1463 1501 1539 1605 1693 1766 1788 1835 1923 1999 2064 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.4 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.5 126.4 127.4 128.1 128.9 129.9 130.9 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 3 4 7 6 3 4 13 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -6. -2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -24. -33. -35. -36. -37. -41. -44. -49. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##