* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 73 67 64 61 60 57 56 53 48 43 40 V (KT) LAND 85 78 73 67 64 61 60 57 56 53 48 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 85 78 72 67 63 57 53 51 49 46 41 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 6 3 8 6 13 17 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 3 3 -2 0 3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 35 33 32 41 55 85 107 221 243 228 215 228 183 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 129 131 139 140 136 137 136 134 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 63 62 63 61 62 60 59 55 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 20 19 18 19 18 16 17 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -1 -3 0 21 21 29 21 18 4 2 -4 200 MB DIV 5 0 -3 -22 -24 0 0 21 50 34 6 -23 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -9 -1 0 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1463 1498 1532 1569 1605 1709 1782 1842 1928 1979 2007 2084 2215 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.7 16.7 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.5 126.5 127.5 128.5 129.6 130.4 131.0 131.9 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 4 8 8 7 12 14 12 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. -25. -28. -29. -32. -37. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 123.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##