* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 61 59 57 56 55 54 57 53 49 46 47 V (KT) LAND 70 64 61 59 57 56 55 54 57 53 49 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 70 64 60 57 55 52 50 49 47 43 38 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 9 8 3 10 9 16 14 10 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 3 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 42 43 52 78 99 157 194 195 184 219 232 202 161 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 132 136 139 140 136 135 133 131 132 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 62 63 63 61 60 60 56 57 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 18 17 18 18 20 18 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -7 -4 0 17 18 25 19 21 7 -10 -12 0 200 MB DIV -1 -22 -21 -11 2 3 13 31 67 27 -31 -37 -51 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 1 0 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1515 1562 1605 1653 1702 1774 1857 1906 1927 1940 1980 2045 2163 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.4 127.4 128.7 129.5 130.2 130.6 131.0 131.6 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 6 7 9 7 10 10 9 10 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -13. -17. -21. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.3 124.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##