* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 62 63 63 60 59 59 55 50 48 49 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 62 63 63 60 59 59 55 50 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 55 53 51 48 43 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 3 1 8 8 14 12 17 8 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 6 -1 0 -4 1 6 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 45 63 94 115 118 168 212 175 204 195 219 207 7 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 134 135 137 135 133 133 133 133 132 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 61 62 62 59 57 56 52 54 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 18 18 17 18 19 17 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -4 8 16 19 25 30 18 19 3 1 14 44 200 MB DIV -13 -13 -3 2 1 0 10 25 38 21 -3 -37 -32 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1563 1610 1657 1697 1738 1827 1881 1899 1938 1973 2019 2099 2244 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 17.9 17.6 17.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.5 126.0 126.5 126.9 128.1 129.1 129.6 130.5 131.0 131.3 132.0 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 6 7 6 8 11 17 18 19 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -10. -15. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.1 124.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 20.9% 13.9% 13.5% 9.4% 13.3% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.6% 5.2% 4.9% 3.2% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##