* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 47 57 66 71 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 47 57 66 71 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 38 44 52 58 61 60 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 12 14 10 10 17 21 26 26 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -5 -5 -3 1 0 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 74 70 74 64 53 79 96 90 96 105 90 100 93 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 154 156 157 158 151 153 151 150 148 149 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 83 83 82 80 79 77 77 71 70 71 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 17 19 20 22 22 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 39 44 39 32 23 19 28 39 74 77 81 200 MB DIV 118 105 108 93 88 113 74 97 90 115 93 75 66 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -10 -13 -7 -3 0 4 7 13 6 -1 LAND (KM) 906 881 850 821 807 830 785 781 804 821 817 867 960 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 6 3 3 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 37 41 27 21 13 16 17 15 14 14 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 27. 36. 41. 43. 41. 37. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.34 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 22.6% 14.6% 14.3% 0.0% 18.4% 20.2% 20.5% Logistic: 0.7% 9.2% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% 4.6% 8.3% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.6% 11.1% 5.9% 5.2% 0.1% 7.7% 9.5% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##