* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/17/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 41 48 55 57 61 69 75 83 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 41 48 55 57 61 69 75 83 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 41 45 48 51 55 62 71 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 14 15 18 21 20 18 14 9 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 7 0 8 6 4 4 6 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 40 44 33 24 28 21 25 28 50 33 45 26 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 166 168 170 170 169 169 169 169 170 166 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 7 6 5 10 8 11 7 10 6 9 5 700-500 MB RH 83 81 82 78 77 75 73 74 70 68 64 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 11 13 18 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 13 3 6 17 19 54 85 85 71 71 44 200 MB DIV 73 62 73 89 80 71 51 68 47 64 42 52 69 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -6 -6 -5 -2 -7 -8 -8 -8 -8 -8 LAND (KM) 343 306 269 224 185 99 69 49 61 96 177 294 213 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 35 31 31 34 37 42 46 43 40 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. 0. 6. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 20. 22. 26. 34. 40. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 99.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 22.8% 21.2% 16.4% 10.6% 19.8% 20.6% 33.3% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2.1% 6.5% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 10.5% 7.8% 5.7% 3.6% 7.3% 9.0% 12.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##