* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 45 45 47 50 52 53 53 50 50 50 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 45 45 47 50 52 53 53 50 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 50 44 41 39 38 37 37 37 36 35 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 4 4 8 6 10 12 7 9 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 70 118 135 131 115 157 193 177 165 150 135 99 64 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 136 139 141 137 134 135 134 136 132 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 64 61 63 61 59 56 52 51 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 17 17 19 20 19 19 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -10 1 13 16 16 30 21 18 12 6 14 24 44 200 MB DIV -11 0 11 4 -7 2 28 32 41 3 -19 -46 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1576 1624 1668 1719 1771 1843 1888 1905 1924 1982 2063 2150 2252 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.4 125.8 126.4 126.9 128.0 128.9 129.4 130.0 130.7 131.5 132.2 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 7 9 7 8 11 16 25 17 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 124.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 17.3% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 5.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 7.5% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##