* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 62 64 66 66 65 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 62 64 66 66 65 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 33 36 41 45 48 49 49 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 15 17 11 15 23 26 26 23 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 3 0 -4 -3 -3 1 -1 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 76 75 58 76 85 89 100 95 101 90 96 88 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 156 158 157 149 152 151 150 149 151 150 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 80 78 77 74 72 68 68 66 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 19 18 20 21 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 41 50 49 42 35 23 16 24 32 68 74 82 89 200 MB DIV 108 113 91 91 109 99 100 117 104 118 92 99 33 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -10 -10 -7 -2 5 4 7 4 2 -1 LAND (KM) 891 847 808 799 807 814 775 791 798 812 884 936 955 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.1 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.1 109.6 110.3 111.1 112.6 113.4 113.9 114.5 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 7 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 41 27 20 17 13 16 17 15 14 16 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 32. 34. 36. 36. 35. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 108.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.0% 17.0% 12.9% 0.0% 17.0% 19.2% 12.3% Logistic: 0.5% 5.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2.7% 7.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 6.2% 4.5% 0.0% 6.6% 8.8% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 FOURTEEN 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##