* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 51 55 61 66 70 72 75 77 76 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 51 55 61 66 70 72 75 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 54 58 64 70 74 77 81 85 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 15 13 14 15 13 16 14 14 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 4 5 1 10 5 1 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 53 51 39 41 35 29 18 40 40 37 29 15 22 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.6 29.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 170 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 162 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 6 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 77 76 75 74 71 72 66 65 63 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 8 9 12 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 9 10 -4 31 37 81 78 90 66 69 44 200 MB DIV 64 94 72 69 67 72 71 87 56 35 25 52 28 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -9 -10 -11 -4 -2 -4 -8 -11 -13 -14 -21 LAND (KM) 315 270 228 189 133 103 73 98 157 243 205 122 116 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 18.1 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.5 102.2 102.8 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.0 110.0 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 32 31 33 34 38 47 47 41 36 34 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 100.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 28.9% 26.0% 20.5% 13.1% 24.2% 32.6% 41.9% Logistic: 3.1% 12.6% 5.2% 2.5% 0.5% 7.5% 16.6% 5.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 29.3% 9.1% 1.7% 0.5% 1.7% 1.5% 4.1% Consensus: 6.8% 23.6% 13.4% 8.3% 4.7% 11.1% 16.9% 17.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##